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Explore the credit cycle more closely

Sunday, March 21st, 2010

23Rather than simply hoping the partnership delivers what it’s capable of achieving, I use a structured process that helps me manage the outcomes. This process is called the Plan–Do–Check–Act cycle, also known as the Shewhart cycle or the Deming cycle.

Walter A. Shewhart, a statistician at Bell Telephone Laboratories in New York, developed a technique to reduce process variation in tasks that workers performed. He developed this planning cycle to improve the output of his processes and bring them under what he called “statistical” control. Later Dr. W. Edwards Deming referred to the Shewhart cycle as the Plan–Do–Check–Act cycle. Deming introduced it to the Japanese to help rebuild their economy after World War II. This cycle has been a cornerstone of the Japanese economic miracle ever since the 1960s and is still used today. In fact, the Japanese call it the Deming Cycle of Quality. The Plan–Do–Check–Act (PDCA) cycle is as useful in developing relationships as it is in managing statistical control or performing a task. I use this simple tool repeatedly throughout the partnering process. Let’s explore the cycle more closely.

What’s the intrinsic value of a loan

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010

The time to maturity is determined in the option contract. Generally, the longer the time to maturity, the more valuable is the option. The reason for this relation is straightforward for the American-style option: the holder of the option can always exercise the option prior to maturity. In addition, there is the possibility to wait and exercise the option at a later point in time. The longer the time to maturity, the greater is the value of the possibility to wait.

For European-style options, the relation of time to maturity and option price needs further explanation. A start is made by showing that an early exercise does not make much sense. Assume that an investor holds a call option with a strike at US$ 100 and a two-year maturity on a nondividend paying stock. The price of the underlying stock is currently at US$ 90. Obviously, an early exercise makes little sense, since the out-of-the money option would be worth zero immediately. Suppose the stock rises to US$ 110 over the next year. If the investor were to exercise the option now, he or she would need to put down US$ 100 (the strike price) and get the stock worth US$ 110. The difference between the actual stock price and the strike price of US$ 10 would have been gained, called the intrinsic value.