pricing policy

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Explore the credit cycle more closely

Sunday, March 21st, 2010

23Rather than simply hoping the partnership delivers what it’s capable of achieving, I use a structured process that helps me manage the outcomes. This process is called the Plan–Do–Check–Act cycle, also known as the Shewhart cycle or the Deming cycle.

Walter A. Shewhart, a statistician at Bell Telephone Laboratories in New York, developed a technique to reduce process variation in tasks that workers performed. He developed this planning cycle to improve the output of his processes and bring them under what he called “statistical” control. Later Dr. W. Edwards Deming referred to the Shewhart cycle as the Plan–Do–Check–Act cycle. Deming introduced it to the Japanese to help rebuild their economy after World War II. This cycle has been a cornerstone of the Japanese economic miracle ever since the 1960s and is still used today. In fact, the Japanese call it the Deming Cycle of Quality. The Plan–Do–Check–Act (PDCA) cycle is as useful in developing relationships as it is in managing statistical control or performing a task. I use this simple tool repeatedly throughout the partnering process. Let’s explore the cycle more closely.

Credit options on liquidity traded assets

Friday, March 12th, 2010

1However, since options are nonlinear derivatives, the delta itself will change with every move of the underlying asset;  i.e. the hedger must adjust the hedge amount dynamically, in order tocorrectly mimic the option to be replicated. Since in reality it is not possible to continuously adjust the hedge, the hedger is exposed to the risk of the delta changing quickly. The hedger with the delta position is always one step behind the true actual delta. The risk of unanticipated changes in the delta is called the gamma risk. In other words, the gamma is the sensitivity of the delta with respect to the underlying asset. If a trader wants to hedge gamma risk in addition to delta risk, he or she needs a security with a nonlinear payoff depending on the same underlying asset in addition to the underlying asset itself. By just using the underlying asset (which is an instrument with a linear payoff) the trader could never hedge gamma risk (which arises only in nonlinear payoffs). Similarly, option price sensitivities with respect to volatility (called vega), to interest rates (called rho) and to net yield can be calculated and used as a hedge measure for a change in the respective parameter. These sensitivities, which were developed for options on liquidly traded assets (e.g. equity), will generally be appropriate for property options as well.

Option value and volatility value of a credit

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010

Alternatively, the investor could wait another year (i.e. to maturity of the option), and observe where the stock price has gone. If the stock price has gone down to, say, US$ 80, he or she would be happy to have waited since a loss would have been avoided. If, on the other hand, the stock rose further to, say, US$ 130, the investor could still exercise the option and put down the strike price of US$ 100. If he or she had exercised earlier, a stock worth US$ 130 would be held. However, the later the strike price needs to paid, the more interest can be earned on that money. Therefore, also in this scenario, it was wiser to wait as long as possible, i.e. until maturity. It follows that a longer maturity is more valuable, i.e. results in a higher option price, even if the option cannot be exercised before maturity.

As just seen, the remaining time to maturity is valuable. Consequently, the option price must be worth more than the intrinsic value (i.e. the US$ 10 that are collected in the above example if exercised immediately). That additional value is related to time to maturity and volatility. Higher volatility makes it more valuable to wait and see, i.e. to have the chance of avoiding a large loss by not exercising early. This difference between the option value and its intrinsic value is thus often called the time or volatility value.